By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)
Population development slowed the world over within the final many years of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the longer term. The 21st century is probably going to determine the tip to global inhabitants development and develop into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked through low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those developments have caused many to foretell a dark destiny attributable to an extraordinary fiscal burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce potent social and monetary regulations and courses.
This is the ultimate quantity in a chain of 3. The papers integrated discover many examples and improve the foundation for potent financial and social rules by means of investigating the industrial, social, and demographic results of the ameliorations within the constructions of inhabitants and relatives. those outcomes contain adjustments in financial habit, either in exertions and monetary markets, and with reference to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.
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Extra info for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3
Tuljapurkar et al. V. 2010 23 24 N. Keilman Frequently, the extra “information” is merely an assumption, sometimes a very strong one. For instance, the combined assumption that a closed population (no. 1) has constant growth rate (no. 2) and constant age distribution (no. 3) defines a stable population. This assumption may be realistic in some cases, but more often, it is not. A population in which the growth rates of age groups are independent of time, but differ across age groups is called a variable growth rate population.
Therefore ad hoc assumptions are necessary. Second, the weak ergodicity principle states that any two age structures, however different, that are submitted to the same series of fertility and mortality rates will eventually converge towards the same age structure5. This implies that BP selects one path of the demographic variables from among an infinity of reasonably smooth paths, and thus any number of alternative but equally plausible paths may be constructed. Further work by Jim Oeppen (1993a, b) attempted to respond to Lee’s critique, in particular the first point.
Among the laws and models, the HeligmanPollard curve is widely applied (Rogers and Gard 1991; McNown and Rogers 1989; Hartmann 1987; Kostaki 1992a,b). Compared to other models, the H-P curve has the advantage that it pairs accuracy in prediction with flexibility, in particular when describing mortality changes over time.